Since I'm going on opening day with happy entry and a passport, I will definitely report back how it goes. I want to ride everything at least once and my threshold is probably about an hour to wait. Depending on how the previews go I may even head to Tink first since that will be standby only and I'm sure the line will build all morning. I'm not sure I would wait an hour to ride anything a second time unless it's that amazing. I will also be going to DS on the following day with happy entry (MC) and so I'll probably try to get a priority pass that day too, unless I am totally over it after one day haha!
I was trying to do the math based on very roughly estimated ride capacity and the amount of eligible parties through packages or FSH guests, and on that alone I think the ride wait times would be quite reasonable. There are simply not many rooms at TDR, and obviously not 100% of them will be packages. And then on a given day I imagine only half of the people with packages will be going to DS since every package has a DL day. Since there are four rides, I think lines would be very reasonable with just passport holders.
The real unknown is how many passes they will allocate to DPA, since those people will share the line with passport holders. Standby shouldn't impact the premier/passport wait times too much so I am not too worried how many standby passes they will offer (and I imagine those wait times will be horrible). It'll be interesting to see if they heavily cap the DPA numbers the first couple days to make sure they can control the lines, or if they just have a fixed number already in mind where they have done the math to optimize waits. Too many DPA would lead to very frustrated passport holders, since the passport/packages are sold at such a premium. It will be interesting to see how quickly the DPA sell out as well. I'll try to watch that too. This is just my guess, but I can't imagine anyone without happy entry will even have a chance to buy a DPA.